Assessment Details and Submission Guidelines

Trimester T1 2019

Unit Code HA1011

Unit Title Applied Quantitative Methods

Assessment Type Assessment 2

Assessment Title Group Assignment

Purpose of the

assessment (with ULO Mapping) Students are required to show the understanding of the principles and techniques of business research and statistical analysis taught in the course.

Weight 20 % of the total assessments

Total Marks 20

Word limit N/A

Due Date Week 10

Submission Guidelines • All work must be submitted on Blackboard by the due date along with a completed

Assignment Cover Page.

• The assignment must be in MS Word format, no spacing, 12-pt Arial font and 2 cm

margins on all four sides of your page with appropriate section headings and page numbers.

• Reference sources must be cited in the text of the report, and listed appropriately

at the end in a reference list using Harvard referencing style.

HA1011 APPLIED QUANTITATIVE METHODS GROUP ASSIGNMENT

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Assignment 1 Specifications

Purpose:

This assignment aims at Understand various qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and techniques, and other general purposes are:

1. Explain how statistical techniques can solve business problems

2. Identify and evaluate valid statistical techniques in a given scenario to solve business problems

3. Explain and justify the results of a statistical analysis in the context of critical reasoning for a business problem solving

4. Apply statistical knowledge to summarize data graphically and statistically, either manually or via a computer package

5. Justify and interpret statistical/analytical scenarios that best fits business solution

Assignment Structure should be as the following:

This is an applied assignment. Students have to show that they understand the principles and techniques taught in this course. Therefore students are expected to show all the workings, and all problems must be completed in the format taught in class, the lecture notes or prescribed text book. Any problems not done in the prescribed format will not be marked, regardless of the ultimate correctness of the answer.

(Note: The questions and the necessary data are provided under “Assignment and Due date” in the Blackboard.)

Instructions:

• Your assignment must be submitted in WORD format only!

• When answering questions, wherever required, you should copy/cut and paste the Excel output (e.g.,

plots, regression output etc) to show your working/output.

• Submit your assignment through Safe-Assign in the course website, under the Assignments and due

dates, Assignment Final Submission before the due date.

• You are required to keep an electronic copy of your submitted assignment to re-submit, in case the

original submission is failed and/or you are asked to resubmit.

• Please check your email prior to reporting your assignment mark regularly for possible communications

due to failure in your submission.

Important Notice:

All assignments submitted undergo plagiarism checking; if found to have cheated, all involving submissions

would receive a mark of zero for this assessment item.

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Attempt all the questions (8×2.5 = 20 Marks)

Question 1 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 1 (Summary Statistics and Graphs)

Data were collected on the number of passengers at each train station in Melbourne. The numbers for the weekday peak time, 7am to 9:29am, are given below.

456 1189 410 318 648 2300 382 248 379 1240 2048 272

267 1134 733 262 682 906 338 1750 530 1584 3045 323

1311 1536 1606 982 878 169 583 548 429 658 344 2450

538 494 1946 268 435 862 866 579 1348 1022 1618 1021

401 1181 1178 637 2745 1000 2900 962 697 401 1442 1115

Tasks:

a. Construct a frequency distribution using 10 classes, stating the Frequency, Relative Frequency, Cumulative Relative Frequency and Class Midpoint

b. Using (a), construct a histogram. (You can draw it neatly by hand or use Excel)

c. Based upon the raw data (NOT the Frequency Distribution), what is the mean, median and mode? (Hint – first sort your data. This is usually much easier using Excel.)

Question 2 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 2 (Measures of Variability and Association)

You are the manager of the supermarket on the ground floor of Holmes Building. You are wondering if there is a relation between the number of students attending class at Holmes Institute each day, and the amount of chocolate bars sold. That is, do you sell more chocolate bars when there are a lot of Holmes students around, and less when Holmes is quiet? If there is a relationship, you might want to keep less chocolate bars in stock when Holmes is closed over the upcoming holiday. With the help of the campus manager, you have compiled the following list covering 7 weeks:

Weekly attendance Number of chocolate bars sold

472 6 916

413 5 884

503 7 223

612 8 158

399 6 014

538 7 209

455 6 214

Tasks:

a. Is above a population or a sample? Explain the difference.

b. Calculate the standard deviation of the weekly attendance. Show your workings. (Hint – remember to use the correct formula based upon your answer in (a).)

HA1011 APPLIED QUANTITATIVE METHODS

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c. Calculate the Inter Quartile Range (IQR) of the chocolate bars sold. When is the IQR more useful than the standard deviation? (Give an example based upon number of chocolate bars sold.)

d. Calculate the correlation coefficient. Using the problem we started with, interpret the correlation coefficient. (Hint – you are the supermarket manager. What does the correlation coefficient tell you? What would you do based upon this information?)

Question 3 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 3 (Linear Regression)

(We are using the same data set we used in Question 2)

You are the manager of the supermarket on the ground floor of Holmes Building. You are wondering if there is a relation between the number of students attending class at Holmes Institute each day, and the amount of chocolate bars sold. That is, do you sell more chocolate bars when there are a lot of Holmes students around, and less when Holmes is quiet? If there is a relationship, you might want to keep less chocolate bars in stock when Holmes is closed over the upcoming holiday. With the help of the campus manager, you have compiled the following list covering 7 weeks:

Weekly attendance Number of chocolate bars sold

472 6916

413 5884

503 7223

612 8158

399 6014

538 7209

455 6214

Tasks:

a. Calculate AND interpret the Regression Equation. You are welcome to use Excel to check your calculations, but you must first do them by hand. Show your workings.

(Hint 1 – As manager, which variable do you think is the one that affects the other variable? In other words, which one is independent, and which variable’s value is dependent on the other variable? The independent variable is always x.

Hint 2 – When you interpret the equation, give specific examples. What happens when Holmes are closed? What happens when 10 extra students show up?)

b. Calculate AND interpret the Coefficient of Determination.

Question 4 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 4 (Probability)

You are the manager of the Holmes Hounds Big Bash League cricket team. Some of your players are recruited in-house (that is, from the Holmes students) and some are bribed to come over from other teams. You have 2 coaches. One believes in scientific training in computerised gyms, and the other in “grassroots” training such as practising at the local park with the neighbourhood kids or swimming and surfing at Main Beach for 2 hours in the mornings for fitness. The table below was compiled:

HA1011 APPLIED QUANTITATIVE METHODS

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Scientific training Grassroots training

Recruited from Holmes students 35 92

External recruitment 54 12

Tasks (show all your workings):

a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen player will be from Holmes OR receiving Grassroots training?

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected player will be External AND be in scientific training?

c. Given that a player is from Holmes, what is the probability that he is in scientific training?

d. Is training independent from recruitment? Show your calculations and then explain in your own words what it means.

Question 5 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 5 (Bayes’ Rule)

A company is considering launching one of 3 new products: product X, Product Y or Product Z, for its existing market. Prior market research suggest that this market is made up of 4 consumer segments: segment A, representing 55% of consumers, is primarily interested in the functionality of products; segment B, representing 30% of consumers, is extremely price sensitive; and segment C representing 10% of consumers is primarily interested in the appearance and style of products. The final 5% of the customers (segment D) are fashion conscious and only buy products endorsed by celebrities.

To be more certain about which product to launch and how it will be received by each segment,

market research is conducted. It reveals the following new information.

• The probability that a person from segment A prefers Product X is 20%

• The probability that a person from segment B prefers product X is 35%

• The probability that a person from segment C prefers Product X is 60%

• The probability that a person from segment D prefers Product X is 90%

Tasks (show your workings):

A. The company would like to know the probably that a consumer comes from segment A if it is known that this consumer prefers Product X over Product Y and Product Z.

B. Overall, what is the probability that a random consumer’s first preference is product X?

Question 6 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 6

You manage a luxury department store in a busy shopping centre. You have extremely high foot traffic (people coming through your doors), but you are worried about the low rate of conversion into sales. That is, most people only seem to look, and few actually buy anything.

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You determine that only 1 in 10 customers make a purchase. (Hint: The probability that the customer will buy is 1/10.)

Tasks (show your workings):

A. During a 1 minute period you counted 8 people entering the store. What is the probability that only 2 or less of those 8 people will buy anything? (Hint: You have to do this by hand, showing your workings. Use the formula on slide 11 of lecture 6. But you can always check your calculations with Excel to make sure they are correct.)

B. (Task A is worth the full 2.5 marks. But you can earn a bonus point for doing Task B.)

On average you have 4 people entering your store every minute during the quiet 10-11am slot. You need at least 6 staff members to help that many customers but usually have 7 staff on roster during that time slot. The 7th staff member rang to let you know he will be 2 minutes late. What is the probability 9 people will enter the store in the next 2 minutes? (Hint 1: It is a Poisson distribution. Hint 2: What is the average number of customers entering every 2 minutes? Remember to show all your workings.)

Question 7 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 7

You are an investment manager for a hedge fund. There are currently a lot of rumours going around about the “hot” property market on the Gold Coast, and some of your investors want you to set up a fund specialising in Surfers Paradise apartments.

You do some research and discover that the average Surfers Paradise apartment currently sells for $1.1 million. But there are huge price differences between newer apartments and the older ones left over from the 1980’s boom. This means prices can vary a lot from apartment to apartment. Based on sales over the last 12 months, you calculate the standard deviation to be $385 000.

There is an apartment up for auction this Saturday, and you decide to attend the auction.

Tasks (show your workings):

A. Assuming a normal distribution, what is the probability that apartment will sell for over $2 million?

B. What is the probability that the apartment will sell for over $1 million but less than $1.1 million?

Question 8 of 8

HINT: We cover this in Lecture 8

You are an investment manager for a hedge fund. There are currently a lot of rumours going around about the “hot” property market on the Gold Coast, and some of your investors want you to set up a fund specialising in Surfers Paradise apartments.

Last Saturday you attended an auction to get “a feel” for the local real estate market. You decide it might be worth further investigating. You ask one of your interns to take a quick sample of 50

HA1011 APPLIED QUANTITATIVE METHODS

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properties that have been sold during the last few months. Your previous research indicated an average price of $1.1 million but the average price of your assistant’s sample was only $950 000. However, the standard deviation for her research was the same as yours at $385 000.

Tasks (show your workings):

A. Since the apartments on Surfers Paradise are a mix of cheap older and more expensive new apartments, you know the distribution is NOT normal. Can you still use a Z-distribution to test your assistant’s research findings against yours? Why, or why not?

B. You have over 2 000 investors in your fund. You and your assistant phone 45 of them to ask if they are willing to invest more than $1 million (each) to the proposed new fund. Only 11 say that they would, but you need at least 30% of your investors to participate to make the fund profitable. Based on your sample of 45 investors, what is the probability that 30% of the investors would be willing to commit $1 million or more to the fund?

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Marking criteria

Marking criteria Weighting

1. Summary Statistics and Graphs:

a) Frequency distribution

b) Histogram

c) Summary statistics 2.5 marks 1 mark 0.5 mark 1 mark

2. Measures of Variability and Association:

a) Differentiating sample and population

b) Standard deviation

c) Range and IQR

d) Correlation coefficient 2.5 marks 0.5 mark 1 mark 0.5 mark 1 mark

3. Linear Regression:

a) Estimating the regression equation

b) Coefficient of determination 2.5 marks 1.5 marks 1 mark

4. Probability:

a) b) c) and d) joint probability and conditional probability 2.5 marks

5. Probability – Bayes’ Rule 2.5 marks

6. Probability distribution 2.5 marks

7. Standard Probability – z distribution 2.5 marks

8. Z- distribution for population proportion 2.5 marks

TOTAL Weight 20%

Assessment Feedback to the Student:

HA1011 APPLIED QUANTITATIVE METHODS

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Marking Rubric

Excellent Very Good Good Satisfactory Unsatisfactory

Summary Statistics

and Graphs Demonstration of outstanding knowledge on summary statistics Demonstration of very good knowledge on summary statistics Demonstration of good knowledge on summary statistics Demonstration of basic knowledge on summary statistics Demonstration of

poor knowledge on

summary statistics

Measures of

Variability and

Association Demonstration of outstanding knowledge on measures of variability and association Demonstration of very good knowledge on measures of variability and association Demonstration of good knowledge on measures of variability and association Demonstration of basic knowledge on measures of variability and association Demonstration of poor knowledge on measures of variability and association

Linear Regression Demonstration of outstanding knowledge on linear regression Demonstration of very good knowledge on linear regression Demonstration of good knowledge on linear regression Demonstration of basic knowledge on linear regression Demonstration of poor knowledge on linear regression

Probability Demonstration of outstanding knowledge on simple probability Demonstration of very good knowledge on simple probability Demonstration of good knowledge on simple probability Demonstration of basic knowledge on Simple probability Demonstration of

poor knowledge on

simple probability

Probability

distribution- z Demonstration of outstanding knowledge on probability distribution and standard normal distribution (z) Demonstration of very good knowledge on probability distribution and standard normal distribution (z) Demonstration of good knowledge on probability distribution and standard normal distribution (z) Demonstration of basic knowledge on probability distribution and standard

normal

distribution (z) Demonstration of poor knowledge on probability distribution and standard normal distribution (z)

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