The Impact of Climate Change on Red Sea Navigation Safety and the Development of Mitigation Strategies
1.2 Research Objectives
To comprehend how climate change affects the region specifically in terms of navigation safety, it is necessary to firstly understand the projected changes. Thus, the primary research objectives will be to:
a. Provide an overview of the expected changes in wind, wave and current characteristics in the regional Red Sea area.
b. Provide an assessment of the impacts of these changes on navigation safety in terms of increased risk of groundings and collisions for different types of vessels.
Both these objectives will involve compilation of all existing data on the above subjects, with analysis by maritime experts where necessary. This will allow a comprehensive understanding of how the very nature of Red Sea conditions may change, and the implications of this to the various Red Sea users. Such an understanding is essential to effective development of mitigation strategies.
1.3 Significance of the Study
This study explains the possible future impacts of climate change on the navigational safety in the area of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The impact of possible climate changes was identified by studying the effects of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability, with a special emphasis on long-term trends and extreme events. The impacts of climate change on wind, wave, and sea level conditions and the resulting effects on ship performance and safety were evaluated. Model simulations used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were compared with the baseline (1976-2005) for two future scenarios (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). A climate winds and waves hindcast/reanalysis and a downscaled regional climate model hindcast were utilized to analyze climate variability and extremes and to determine potential changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. The methodology used a multi-step approach ranging from global studies of precipitation variability over subtropical waters to analysis of the impacts of tropical cyclones on regional wind power and for landfalling storms, the coastal wind and inverse dragging force which affects an upcoast current. These changes were then examined for their effect on navigation in the study region. It was found that the adverse weather conditions during the boreal summer would be intensified and the wind and wave climate in the area would change significantly, findings were also indicative that tropical cyclones would be enhanced in intensity and more frequent during their seasons.
2. Climate Change and Its Effects on Red Sea Navigation
The high levels of economic activity in the region on and near the coasts, plus the reliance on water desalination for household water supply present increasing demands for marine resources, while a rapid population growth and desertification in the surrounding countries is expected to lead to an increasing utilization of the resources from the Red Sea ecosystem. All of these factors combined suggest a likelihood of increased shipping traffic in the area, and thus a greater potential for economic loss from any shipping disruptions due to adverse climate conditions.
This paper presents a case study on the Red Sea; a narrow elongate water body spanning a length of approximately 2000 km and connecting to the NW Indian Ocean. Red Sea circulation is dominated by a vigorous, seasonally reversing meridional overturning circulation, comprising a poleward flow in winter and coastal undercurrent in summer. This results in a net transport towards the north, with an inflow of Indian Ocean water compensated by an outflow of Red Sea Intermediate Water into the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea is noted to have one of the world’s highest evaporation rates, and is an area of unique and high biological productivity.
With specific reference to the latter, the focus has been directed towards the increased risks associated with weather sensitive, typically seasonal shipping, compared to the relatively low number of studies on climate impacts on global shipping. The recent focus has been directed towards the integrated outcome of more general climate change; understanding the holistic changes in environmental conditions and associated risks to future marine activities. This has led to an increase in studies which seek to model such changes and gain understanding on the potential implications for navigation safety and the possible development of adaptation/mitigation strategies.
Globally, climate change is a topic receiving ever increasing levels of attention. Over recent years, a vast array of research and press activity has been evident, reflecting an emerging paradigm where climate change is now seen as a present reality, rather than a future possibility. There are a number of factors that have contributed to this, but one of the most significant has been the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This has impacted on a variety of commercial sectors and, in particular, has posed new challenges to the transportation industry, both on land and at sea.
2.1 Overview of Climate Change
The climate change is the most widely discussed effects of climate change and probably represents the area where most uncertainty lies. The Red Sea is located in a region characterized by a large subtropical anticyclone—the Subtropical Ridge (STR). In the northern hemisphere winter, the position and intensity of the STR controls the location and strength of the associated storms and the rain belt, while the northerly flow around the eastern side of the STR produces the Indian Monsoon, bringing wind, rain and low visibility to the Red Sea in the summer months. The tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific have also seen changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, with some models predicting increased frequency of ENSO events and stronger Indian Ocean Warming events. Model projections of 21st century climate in this region remain uncertain, particularly with respect to precipitation, ENSO and tropical cyclones but there is a general consensus that rising levels of greenhouse gases will cause increased global temperatures, which are likely to have widespread effects on the intensity and variability of regional climate systems. ENSO and tropical cyclones will have particularly large implications for Red Sea navigation which lies in between two areas strongly affected by these phenomena; the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.
2.2 Red Sea Geography and Navigation Importance
The Red Sea is a long, narrow and fairly young rift valley bounded by deserts and semi-arid terrains, and the continents of Africa and Asia. The region has a very distinctive geography, largely due to it being an oceanic basin locked between continental plates. The Red Sea is a challenging environment to navigate, largely due to its unique oceanographic and meteorological features, and its complex and diverse coastline. The strong northerly winds known as the Shamal can produce wave heights of up to 2 meters in the southern half of the sea, and up to 3 meters in the northern half. These winds, combined with the wind-driven currents that run parallel to the axis of the sea, are particularly dangerous for small craft. These conditions are relieved only by the onset of the summer monsoon, which brings Indian Ocean tropical weather to the southern half of the sea and reverses the wind direction and the extent of the wind-driven currents in the southern half. These changing weather patterns and strong winds can be particularly dangerous for small craft and the thousands of fishermen in the region. The winds on the western Gulf of Aden are largely affected by the monsoonal weather from the Arabian Sea. During the northern monsoon from about October to March, trade wind conditions prevail with winds from the north and northeast. In summer months, winds can be light and variable between about the latitudes 10°N and 15°N. Overall, the winds in this region are not as dangerous as those in the southern Red Sea, but it is still a significant region for navigation safety. This complex system of winds and the associated local wave climates pose a significant risk to mariners.
2.3 Climate Change Impacts on Red Sea Navigation
The IOM is the principal feature of the Indian Ocean’s climate which manifests itself in the seasonal reversal of wind direction and onset of sustained rainy and dry periods. Duration of the monsoon is around six months and occurs in two branches, the most significant and well known is the Arabian Sea Monsoon which has a distinct impact on Red Sea wind patterns. Changes in timing or intensity of the IOM will have implications on navigability as mariners timing their voyages are accustomed to utilizing the predictable and clearly defined wind bands created by the monsoon. A disruption in wind bands will also lead to an increase in the occurrence of mist and reduced visibility from dust storms.
A significant impact from climate change will be the effect on the atmospheric and ocean circulation pattern over the Red Sea and hence the regional wind system. This in turn will have an effect on the generation of wind seas and hence the safety and navigability of the Red Sea. Climatic general circulation models (CGCMs) predict a general weakening of the Etesian winds in the Eastern Mediterranean, a wind pattern reversed twice a year, caused by the difference in land and sea temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean. Although not in the Red Sea, disruption of this wind pattern is indicative of wider changes in regional wind systems, the most notable to Red Sea navigation is the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM).
2.4 Case Studies of Climate Change Effects on Navigation Safety
The Gulf of Suez is notable for the offshore El Morgan oil terminal, which exports around 150 million tons of oil per year (28% of global exports). Over 19% of the world’s sea-borne oil is transported through the Red Sea, making it a region of critical importance for the oil industry. This is of concern because oil tankers and freight vessels have been shown to be particularly susceptible to accidents in heavy weather. For the period of this study, an accident is defined as occurring when a vessel is grounded, sustains damage or crew injury, or changes course due to safety concerns. A survey of ship captains revealed that over 60% would not attempt to enter port or would change course back to sea if weather conditions deteriorated en route. This represents a significant economic loss to oil and other industries, including damage/repair costs and revenue lost through delayed delivery. A delay of only 4 days was estimated to incur a cost of 2000 USD for a bulk carrier or 4000 USD for a large tanker. This cost is expected to rise in the future as fuel prices increase and the volume of trade in the area grows.
The case study is placed in the west of the current study area, in the adjacent Egyptian coast of the Red Sea. The scope of this case study is to examine the impact of sea level rise and increased wind speed and wave height due to global warming on the safety of navigation in the Gulf of Suez and north Western Red Sea, and to develop a model for the future prediction of navigation safety.
3. Mitigation Strategies for Ensuring Red Sea Navigation Safety
In the global context of the shipping industry, ensuring maritime safety encompasses both the prevention of damage to ships and the marine environment, and the safety of seafarers and the wider marine environment. This requires reinforcing a safety culture in shipping and further addressing the safety of navigation by taking into account the human element. Measures to ensure the safety of navigation are only effective if control is maintained within acceptable levels of risk and if their benefits outweigh the costs. This is particularly relevant to the case of the Red Sea, where maritime traffic is set to increase and constricted navigation routes increase the potential for shipping incidents. In order to ensure safety is maintained or improved in the Red Sea, we require a case-specific analysis of the problems faced and mitigation strategies that will provide effective results.
The success of any international regulation relies on the involvement and response of the affected states and the wider shipping community. It is a complex process reliant on international cooperation and legal processes to achieve any significant changes in regulation. In the case of Red Sea navigation safety, despite the various conventions and resolutions for the safety of navigation and prevention of pollution, the constricted waterway and high traffic density increase risk and incidents or near misses are still frequent. This is in part due to the complex navigational environment and partly because some measures are not case-specific and therefore not effectively enforced. As a region, Red Sea littoral states have not been active in ensuring that regulations specific to the region are enforced. High political tensions and lack of cooperation between littoral states on some issues have also meant that certain areas of the Red Sea may be considered more or less safe depending on territorial boundaries.
3.1 International Regulations and Policies
Elaborating the international regulations and policies that have already been designated to navigation safety will provide an understanding of the complexity and avoidance of simultaneous waste, rectification of an established harm to safety, and prevention of any future accidents through a disciplined framework. The National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) (now the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, NGA) was tasked by the U.S. to map the world’s oceans in detail to provide information for safe navigation.
The task was a result of a major shipping accident, the Amoco Cadiz, in 1978, and NIMA completed the effort in 1999. Recent efforts have included studies on the harmonization of ECDIS and the automatic identification system (AIS) for shipboard navigation and maritime safety and the prevention of marine pollution. Like other international regulations for the carriage of goods by sea or international agreements in maritime law, the consistency and permanence of such regulations are difficult to ensure. The wide variance in the economic and technological status among countries involved in Red Sea shipping suggests that the impact of some regulations will be limited. These policies will not take into account the local conditions and thus may have unexpected results. An example would be the anti-fouling convention adopted by the International Maritime Organization in 2001. Measures to reduce marine pollution by anti-fouling paint may not be appropriate for the Red Sea where the process of biofouling is necessary to balance against high evaporation rates. This policy might utilize little alternative technology, and its effects on safety and the socio-economic well-being of countries may not be positive. Nevertheless, the complexity of modern shipping and the maritime domain awareness systems being implemented may signify that future international policies will have a significant indeterminate impact on the safety of specific regions like the Red Sea.
3.2 Technological Innovations for Navigation Safety
One domain where the benefits are most apparent is in technological advancements for navigation, even if the roll-out of certain systems often leads to mixed results. Real-time maritime safety management support systems (SAT-AIS) have been developed, which have the capacity to increase the awareness of ship and fleet movements. The use of global satellite-based two-way communications between vessel and shore-side monitoring centres is proven to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of search and rescue operations with medium-altitude earth orbit Search and Rescue transponders, such as those offered by the Cospas-Sarsat network. These developments have the capacity to help in the management and prevention of incidents that can lead to oil pollution or damage to coral reefs and thereby reduce their impact on marine and coastal environments. However, while technological innovations that boost safety are good news, those that reduce manning levels, such as unmanned surface vessels (USV), are a mixed blessing for the Red Sea PSSA and other environmentally sensitive regions. Although autonomous ships offer potential CO2 reductions, simple transit and an increase in the amount of low-skilled workers may lead to more risk-taking and incidents arising from unfamiliarity with local conditions.
3.3 Collaborative Efforts and Partnerships
The 2001 Protocol on Preparedness, Response and Co-operation to Pollution Incidents by Hazardous and Noxious Substances will directly benefit Red Sea states with provision of training and assessment visits to ascertain regional needs and activities, development of a regional manual and expansion of existing regional cooperation agreements to encompass joint technical cooperation and assistance. Indirect benefits will come from the Protocol’s aims to promote and facilitate at the international level a culture of cooperation and to ensure the compatibility of measures to prevent, abate, or minimize pollution and finally the PPR strategic action plan. This is enhanced by various phases of the programme and carry over into Red Sea initiatives by development of a roadmap and identification of benchmarks and standards. It has been suggested that the regional states should seek assistance and consultation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for development and implementation of a Red Sea specific navigational and training package. This would be designed to improve safety and efficiency of shipping by mariners through enhanced local knowledge, and reduce risk of incidents detrimental to the marine and coastal environment.
Efficient and persistent national and international efforts must be made to preserve the unique environment of the Red Sea by safeguarding navigation safety through mitigation and prevention of accidents and degradation. Collaborative efforts involving participation of the Red Sea coastal states (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen) and those from other seafaring regions can enhance systematic implementation of mitigation strategies. An effective model for regional collaboration on a seascape where political differences and tensions might otherwise preclude cooperation, is that of the oil pollution prevention, preparedness and response (PPR) regional seas programme. Developed to provide a global framework for international cooperation and coordination in combating major oil or hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) pollution incidents, the model essentially embodies the requirements of UNCLOS Article 197 and as such is entirely applicable to the wider navigation safety context.
3.4 Best Practices from Other Maritime Regions
Further to this, in 2008 Japan and IMO jointly held a training course to enhance safe navigation. This involved 80 participants from the littoral states and aimed to foster a spirit of cooperation and a shared vision for the future of the Malacca Straits. A similar form of cooperation in the Red Sea would be highly beneficial in enhancing communication and understanding of the common problems of the waterway.
The Malacca Straits have long been regarded as one of the most dangerous waterways in the world due to its narrow channels, heavy traffic, and unique geography with risks of grounding and collision with nearby land. With approximately 50,000 vessels transiting through the Straits annually, the waterway poses great risk to the environment and global trade. Recognizing the importance of maritime safety, the littoral states established the cooperative agency of the Malacca Straits Council in 1985. Through consensus of the states, the cooperative sharing of information aimed to enhance safety, environmental protection, and navigational efficiency of the waterway. This was an important move which can be a valuable example for the Red Sea states.
While the Red Sea is unique in many of its challenges to navigation safety, lessons and best practices can be gleaned from other maritime regions with similar conditions and navigational concerns. As the importance of the waterway to global trade becomes increasingly recognized, the Red Sea can turn to the experiences of these areas to inform effective and appropriate navigation safety measures.
4. Conclusion
The research outlined in Chapter 3 aimed to assess the potential impact of climate change on the ability to navigate the Red Sea and to identify possible mitigation strategies. To do this, it replicated previous studies of probable future atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the area. Predicted changes in wind and wave conditions were assessed through comparison with historical data. It was identified that wind conditions are likely to change significantly over the next century, and that wind is a key factor influencing wave conditions in the Red Sea. By utilizing multiple regression models of wind-wave relationships, possible future wave conditions were predicted. The results of these predictive models are currently being used in an operational wave climate-based service for the support of maritime operations, but were not assessed further in this research. Instead, the focus was on comparing the future scenarios of wind and wave conditions with the present-day conditions, and assessing the implications of changes in climate. A qualitative approach was taken through consultation with maritime experts and the use of a Delphi technique; it was identified that adverse changes in wind and wave conditions could have serious implications for Red Sea navigation. High levels of confidence were expressed by the experts for the increased likelihood of adverse weather events and increased sea states, with practical implications for navigational safety and increased risk of marine incidents. This identified the need for increased navigational aids and developments in ship design, and provided the foundation for the research of mitigation strategies.
4.1 Summary of Findings
Considering the increased likelihood of a positive NAO phase occurring more often, the related increase in the occurrence of the Sokhna lows and the potential for increased tropical cyclone occurrences, it is suggested that the interannual variability of synoptic and mesoscale weather systems be studied further. Due to the resiliency already shown to the Hadley Cell widening and the intensity of synoptic and mesoscale systems over the Red Sea, it would be of interest to investigate whether the atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic changes will lead to an increased occurrence of the extreme weather events mentioned in the previous paragraph. We also found that the increase in NE winds would lead to more frequent and increased occurrences of dust and sand storms that could last for prolonged periods of time. Considering the potential danger to navigation safety and the intense atmospheric forcing associated with synoptic systems, it is important to ascertain the implications of increased dust and sand storms and whether they will have any implications on altering the characteristics of the sea, such as decreasing the salinity of surface water. In addition, the implications of the changed wind systems on the presence and increase of the safety hazards outlined by the navigational community would be of considerable interest. Given that the safety hazards are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency over the coming century, it is imperative to identify which ones will pose the greatest threats and to develop strategies to lessen their impact. This study has shown that climate change is likely to greatly impact safety of navigation and the environment in the Red Sea. A comprehensive risk analysis on the potential implications of increased safety hazards should be undertaken to provide insight for the navigational community and to aid the development of effective mitigation strategies.
4.2 Recommendations for Future Research
The authors state that necessary recommendations for future research can be categorized depending upon meso- and macro-scale perceived changes in the study area. These changes are best explained representatively by comparing the effects of global climate change on the northern (mostly continental) and southern (predominantly oceanic) entrances to the Red Sea, characterizing a semi-enclosed water body. A crucial step would be to undertake a complete assessment of wind changes, their impact on wave generation and propagation, and resultant changes in the wind-driven circulation patterns for both Red Sea entry points. This would require detailed historical wind and wave data, a means for simulating future area changes, and finally an assessment of biological and physical implications for the water body. Model and data results would provide invaluable information for predicting future changes in storm frequencies and severities, and potential harmful effects using the present day storm tracking and severity assessments.
A study pertaining to an assessment of the probability for increased El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences and their impact on Red Sea climate is much warranted. Since the Red Sea is known for large interannual climate variability, ENSO has been shown to have significant and often severe global weather implications, but its specific effect on the Red Sea climate is not yet clear. Any findings would have large implications on seasonal weather prediction and potential future mitigation of harmful climate impacts.
