IE 341 Transportation & Logistics Engineering, Fall 2014 PROJECT #2 methods to forecast quarterly demand

WHAT TO DO: As a first step in the teams decision making, you should forecast the quarterly demand foreach of the two types of containers for the years 2010 to 2012. Based on historical trends, demand is expectedto continue to grow until 2012, after which it expected to plateau. Julie must select the appropriate forecastingmethod and estimate the likely forecast error.Use the following methods to forecast quarterly demand for the years 2010 to 2012 in EXCEL:(a) Moving Average(b) Exponential Smoothing method(c) Exponential Smoothing with Trend(d) Time Series Decomposition(e) For parts (a), (b) and (c), also compute the:i. forecasting errors (MAD, MSE, MAPE).ii. standard error of forecast (SF), Bias and Tracking Signal,iii. also assuming normally distributed forecast errors, 90% confidence range for the 2010-2012forecasts (i.e., using 90% = 1.28).(f) Which method should she choose? Why? Explain by typing your answer in the EXCEL filesubmitted. Hint: Plot of the quarterly demand (versus time) for clear and black plastic containers willhelp you to determine on the forecasting method.WHAT TO SUBMIT: One of the team members should submit a SINGLE EXCEL file (.xls OR .xlsx only)including all the TEAM MEMBERS NAMES/IDs in the file through the IE341-Project2-Fall2014-EXCELFile Submission available under Assignments in Blackboard. Failure of submission will result in a 0 markfor the project. You can use the Week08-Forecasting-InClassExercise.xlsx (under Course Materials inBlackboard) as a template for your answer. Note that for parts (a), (b), (c), (d), (e) and (f), you should haveseparate worksheets in the same file. No need to submit your answers as a printout (as I will only mark yourEXCEL file only.)