The Impact of Regional Political Instability on Maritime Security Risks in the Red Sea

Posted: May 31st, 2023

The Impact of Regional Political Instability on Maritime Security Risks in the Red Sea
1. Introduction
Moreover, recent piracy off the coast of Somalia has further highlighted the impact of regional political instability on maritime security risks. The nature of the maritime environment means that there are a vast array of ways in which regional instability could affect security. This might range from direct state-on-state conflict resulting in closure of a choke point, to the activities of insurgents or terrorist groups using the maritime environment to further their objectives. With this in mind, the following research aims to examine the link between regional political instability and its effect on maritime security through a case study of events in the Red Sea between 2008 and 2013. The case of the Red Sea was chosen as it represents a confined and specific maritime environment rich in security issues, yet one that has been relatively overlooked within academic literature. The case study will aim to examine the ways in which events on land have impacted security at sea through a detailed and systematic analysis of the Red Sea region. This will be followed by a broader discussion of the theoretical implications of the case study, in an attempt to develop an IR constructivist framework through which to examine regional instability and maritime security.
Political instability, at both a regional and national level, is not a new phenomenon, and its impact on security has been widely discussed within the literature. However, the relationship between political instability and various security issues is complex and often indirect. This is clearly the case with regional political instability and its impact on security in the maritime domain. The relationship between events on land and their impact on the maritime environment has been largely overlooked within security studies and International Relations theory. Indeed, the marginalization of the maritime sector itself within IR has resulted in a relatively underdeveloped theoretical framework through which to examine the link between regional instability and maritime security. Nevertheless, events such as Iran’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz, the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and the 2008 fighting in Georgia have drawn attention to the significance of the relationship.
1.1 Background
Nestled in between Asia and the Arabian Peninsula, the sea is a major route for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf. Security around the Red Sea is of great importance for major importing nations such as the United States, China, and also European states. Since oil is a major source of energy for the industrialized and newly industrialized countries, its importance in the world and local economies has made it a high-value commodity. The paper details how regional political instability has led to an increase in maritime security risks such as piracy and also poses the question whether major world powers would need to increase their military presence in the region to safeguard their interests. This may inadvertently lead to tensions between world powers and also increase competition between regional states for security guarantees from major powers. This paper aims to show that the sum of these actions may further destabilize the region and, in turn, increase maritime security risks for the major nations relying on its oil.
The Red Sea is the shipping route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal. This heavily used route accounts for much of the oil transported via sea due to its high accessibility. 4% of world oil production (worth 3 million barrels) passes through the Suez Canal. This high-value traffic passing through a confined area makes it highly susceptible to piracy and terrorism. Triggered by the terror attack on the USS Cole in 2000 and then the increase of piracy off the coast of Somalia, major world powers have been increasing their military presence in the region. This includes the United States and China conducting anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and also new military installations in countries such as Djibouti. This increase of military assets in the region has a direct correlation to regional political instability. High security risks have led to some oil transportation companies hiring private military companies for protection of their ships.
1.2 Objectives
The study will describe the potential ramifications of this and assess how the downturn of shipping in the region will affect the countries that rely on the SLOC for trade and their economic and political ties with the rest of the world.
The study will describe how political instability in a state can be a contributing factor to the rise of private security companies used as a final bastion of defense on merchant ships. The case of Somali piracy and the formation of Puntland State will be used to show the link between the rise in political instability and an increase in private security, especially the use of armed guards on ships. It is anticipated that the main threats to maritime security mentioned above will have a significant impact on the laws and regulations and the price of insurance for ships. This will, in turn, reduce the economic feasibility for shipping firms to continue operating in the region.
This study aims to analyze the impact of regional political instability on maritime security risks in the Red Sea. It will identify the main threats to maritime security in the region by providing descriptions regarding the intensity of piracy in the southern entrance of the Red Sea. The study will explain the problem of terrorism and how it poses a threat to transit shipping through the Red Sea because of the influence of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on Yemen.
1.3 Scope
This dissertation aims to uncover the various elements of political instability and how these have impacted the security within the maritime environment of the Red Sea. The scope of this research, which considers the period from 1960 to 2009, is limited to the regional implications of interstate and civil war. Key international events will be assessed where there has been a clear impact upon regional conflict and detriment to Red Sea security. This includes the Cold War and the subsequent reduction in Western-Soviet conflict, the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Iraq-Iran war of 1980-1988, the two Gulf Wars of the 1990s, and the Ethiopian-Eritrean war of 1998-2000. It is these conflicts that have impacted the state of the region and have implications for the security in the near future. This therefore influences the research on contemporary implications for security. A case study is held on the Aden Port Activity Index, where it examines the relationship between port activity and political stability in the Red Sea. This is used to understand the current activity of the states in question and how this may impact future security.
The study is based on providing a detailed analysis of the various factors of political instability in the region and how these have implications for the security of the Red Sea. This includes an in-depth analysis of the economic reliance of Red Sea states on maritime resources and transportation, with a focus on the exploitation of resources during conflict and the subsequent implications on the security of these resources. The economic factors are a primary cause for maritime security threats, and there are various incidents over the past 50 years that have impacted the security of the Red Sea. This provides a platform of understanding for the various other issue areas that affected states have participated in, as a means to further their interests in times of political instability. The study also includes an analysis of the internationalization of Red Sea conflicts and the implications of regional alliances and alignments. This has led to proxy warfare between Red Sea states and has greatly impacted the security of the region.