Weathering the Storm: Developing Strategies for Resilient Port Operations in the Face of Climate Change Impacts

Posted: February 29th, 2024

Weathering the Storm: Developing Strategies for Resilient Port Operations in the Face of Climate Change Impacts
1. Introduction
The International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) has increasingly raised concerns about the potential effects of climate change on ports, and its implications on port and cargo safety and security throughout the world. Little research has been undertaken in this field, though it is now recognized that the changing climate will affect the storminess of an area and the energy levels within individual storms, which are key factors in determining the geomorphic changes to a coastline and the subsequent changes in coastal processes. This knowledge is of great importance to port authorities as changes in coastal processes increase the likelihood of navigational issues within port access channels, requiring increased maintenance dredging and capital works to rectify. Identification of changes in storm patterns is vital knowledge to port engineers, who must also identify changes in ship types and port infrastructure to maintain a high level of safety and accessibility for the global shipping industry. Furthermore, it is expected that changes to climate and storm patterns will have economic effects on world trade with potential changes to the types of cargo being imported and exported and the locations in which this trade is undertaken. It is likely that there will be increased demand for certain types of goods such as building materials. Additionally, there will be greater disparity in world wealth and an increased frequency of natural disasters may require higher demand for certain types of emergency supplies. As it stands, developing countries are more reliant on exporting primary products and high-end imports have a high income elasticity. Therefore, any changes in the types and locations of trade will have varying effects on different countries. Minimizing loss and adapting to changes in the global market will be of high concern to port authorities throughout the world.
Climate change is now widely acknowledged as the most pressing environmental challenge facing the world today. The implications of climate change will be pronounced for coastal regions, and are likely to have effects on the frequency and magnitude of storm events, sea level, and storm surge, potentially compromising the reliability and safety of a range of coastal structures. Climate change studies have highlighted that more frequent and intense storms are possible in the future with significant increases in rainfall intensities. While the prospect of climate change – and a potentially more hostile marine environment, presents an enormous challenge to engineers concerned with design and maintenance of coastal infrastructure, it is also pivotal that steps be taken to reduce the contributions that coastal defences and shoreline structures make to climate change, by way of consuming non-renewable materials and producing high amounts of greenhouse gases in their construction and maintenance.
1.1 Background
The ports are the lifeline to a country, a connection to the global economy. 80% of a nation’s trade by volume comes from the ports. The importance of ports to the global economy cannot be understated, also in terms of disaster relief and logistics supply chains. However, many of the world’s ports are located on low-lying coastal plains, river mouths, and deltas. This is because the access to the sea, calm waters, and the availability of land in these areas are ideally suited to ship maneuvering and massive container storage areas. Unfortunately, many ports are also located in areas of high climate risk such as typhoon/hurricane and flood zones. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has found that weather-related disasters account for 75% of the economic costs of natural disasters, totaling almost $200 billion in 2005. With the progress of climate change, these costs for coastal settlements and infrastructure are set to increase due to sea level rise and an increase in the severity of tropical storms.
The impacts of climate change to the ports are twofold. Direct impacts such as damage to berths, gantry cranes, warehouses, and other infrastructure from extreme weather events and long-term impacts such as a change in the patterns of the storm surges and higher wave action that will alter the sedimentation of the ports, affecting the maintenance dredging and navigation of large ships. Measures such as coastal armoring are not suited to the dynamic wave climate of the future and will be a sunk investment when the placement of the port is no longer sustainable due to long-term impacts and raised sea level.
1.2 Significance of the Study
The importance of this research study is underscored by the critical, yet vulnerable, nature of ports as the entry point for 90% of the world’s goods. Shipping and port operations have continued to ignore and/or remain reactive to climate variability and change. However, these meteorological changes which lead to an increase in climate-related natural disasters, such as hurricanes, could severely disrupt port operations. Without taking into account how future climate scenarios could affect port operations, it is extremely likely that the potential damages from climate-related disasters would offset any progress made in reducing damage to the port environment from conventional forms of pollution. An assessment of the potential damages from climate-related disasters on port infrastructure and operations is necessary for formulating preventative measures and needed changes in port design. This involves developing a sustainable design framework to enhance the resiliency of port structures so that they can withstand climate-related natural disasters and still function properly. The insight gained from this research will help ensure that port and nearby infrastructure are designed and modified in a manner which will foster sustainable development despite potential increases in the severity of climate-related natural disasters.
1.3 Research Objectives
The research objectives aim to highlight the plan and inspiration behind the examination. They lay a strong foundation for the advancements made in the dissertation. This persuades the reader to read further into the dissertation and it also promises them that the forthcoming material will be valuable. The aim is to expound whether port operations will be affected by climate change and to define the measures or strategies that could be implemented to avoid the repercussions of the affects. The examination will be focusing on trying to forecast the type of changes that may occur and by doing so finding out the best possible solution that could be implemented. This could only be achieved if there is clear understanding to how and in what way will climate change affect port operations and what are the present measures that could be applied. The study will not only critique on the affects, it will also ponder upon how data analysis from various sources could be used as an effective tool to predict the weather scenarios and to what extent weather forecasting could be relied upon in taking preventive measures at that instance of time. This will in turn also provide an insight on which type of preventive measures would be cost effective and the probability of its success.
2. Climate Change Impacts on Port Operations
Sea level is expected to rise by 0.9m in the next 100 years. This will have wide-ranging impacts on port infrastructure, operations, and navigational safety. Wharves, quays, cargo handling and storage areas, and passenger terminals sited at present-day higher tides, storm surge or flood levels will become increasingly vulnerable to damage and disruption. Structures such as lock and dock gates, which require differential water levels to operate, will need to be modified. Dredging and reclamation or other capital works may become necessary to maintain or alter water depths alongside berthing and at approaches to navigation channels. The cost of port maintenance will increase. Higher silt loads in coastal and riverine waters caused by increased runoff and soil erosion may affect vessel access and navigation. This, in turn, may necessitate more regular dredging and more substantial alterations to coastal hydraulic regimes. Maintaining safe navigation is perhaps the most readily addressed climate change impact on ports and will center on greater use of predictive knowledge and real-time monitoring of changing hydrographic conditions.
There is clear consensus within the scientific community that the Earth’s climate is changing. The potential impacts of climate change are a growing concern for many industries due to the scale and cost of likely measures to adapt. In the case of port operations, the concerns are centered on the vulnerabilities of existing infrastructure and the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Four primary impacts of climate change on port infrastructure and operations are predicted: rising sea levels; changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; changes in precipitation patterns; and coastal erosion.
2.1 Rising Sea Levels
The effects of sea level rise will vary depending on local geography, the rate and amount of rise, and how successful or unsuccessful mitigation and adaptation strategies are. The one common outcome is that the impacts will result in changes to port mobility, trade patterns, and reliability. This is largely due to the relative ease of damage and high costs associated with building new port facilities compared to ascertaining that existing facilities reach a certain level of functionality.
Dense coastal population areas, particularly in the South East Asia and Pacific regions, are also highly reliant on local trade for economic stability. Many of these regions are already prone to extreme weather events and have a low capacity to adapt to changes. It is expected that there will be a polarisation of world ports, with facilities in low-income or heavily affected regions suffering from a lack of development and subsequent poor functionality, compared to overdevelopment of facilities in other areas. Overdevelopment can result in excessively high competition between ports in single regions, lowering the profit margins for port operators.
Rising sea levels are likely to have a significant impact on world trade patterns and the location of industry. Ports and inland waterways, which are the gateway for much of the world’s raw materials and manufactured goods transportation, are at particular risk. As world trade continues to grow, there is an increasing demand for port development both in terms of new facilities and the expansion of existing ports. This is because the costs and times associated with the transportation of goods usually increase for longer distances, thus making the nearest port the most attractive option. This trend will increase the potential losses associated with damage or disruption to port facilities due to sea level rise.
2.2 Extreme Weather Events
Heavy precipitation due to more frequent extreme weather events, including tropical storms and hurricanes, can increase freshwater inflows to estuaries and reduce the salinity levels in port areas. This will generally have a negative impact on port operations, as increased dredging will be necessary for larger vessels and port channels. There will also be increased maintenance costs for port facilities and equipment damaged by extreme weather events. Furthermore, increased surface runoff and soil erosion can transport increased loads of sediment and pollution into the waterways, which can impair water quality and aquatic habitats. The severity of the impact of extreme weather events on the resiliency of port infrastructure will largely depend on the capabilities of individual port authorities to respond to future changes, which will be tempered by uncertainties surrounding the specific locations and intensities of these events.
Current and future changes in weather and climate will require assessed impacts on the management and operations of marine and inland waterway transportation systems. This will require the development of climate adaptation plans that aim to reduce vulnerabilities and exploit beneficial opportunities. These plans will generally need to be specific to individual ports and/or the local area and must be integrated within any overall authority or regional plans for port and waterway development. Such assessments and planning may necessitate consultation with climate science and assessment specialists.
2.3 Coastal Erosion and Flooding
That is, as sea levels rise and storms increase in frequency and intensity, there will be more rapid onset of erosion and development near the coast. Projected climate change impacts also have the potential to result in heavy economic loss due to coastal erosion and substantial costs from protecting or relocating the infrastructure. According to the IPCC, many small islands and low-lying areas may be uninhabitable due to the increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion. This would result in the relocation of critical port infrastructure and resources. An increase in coastal flooding would result in port closures, or long-term decreases in cargo handling capacity and changes in port function due to a change in the primary cargo types handled. This type of event can be seen in the example of New Orleans, where the Port of New Orleans was closed for several months due to the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Katrina. This greatly impacted the local and regional economy and resulted in changes in the primary commodities handled at that port.
2.4 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Patterns
Climate change can have a wide variety of impacts on temperature and precipitation, and these can in turn have a number of impacts, both positive and negative, on port operations. Some ports, particularly those located in the high and mid-latitude regions, may benefit from milder winters and extended frost-free seasons, allowing expansion of operations such as construction and repair which are typically limited by cold temperatures. Warmer temperatures can also have the indirect effect of increasing demand for goods that are shipped through the port, to meet increased demand by consumers for items such as air conditioning units and other cooling appliances. Global increases in temperature are expected to result in more frequent and severe heatwaves, and while the impacts of this will vary by location, ports in regions with a high frequency and intensity of heatwaves can expect disruptions to work schedules and higher heat stress on outdoor workers.
Most of the potential negative impacts of changing temperature and precipitation patterns on port operations are related to the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to have a wide range of impacts on the frequency and severity of various types of weather, though these are difficult to predict in many cases. In general, it is expected that some areas will experience more frequent and severe storms, including snowstorms and ice storms in some higher latitude regions, and increased severe convective storms in many mid-latitude regions. High winds from these storms can disrupt normal port operations and cause damage to port facilities and infrastructure. Heavy rainfall from these events can cause waterlogging of cargoes and road and rail flooding at ports with resultant costly cleanup and repair. The most severe weather events, tropical cyclones, have the potential to cause catastrophic damage to coastal port facilities and infrastructure from high winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges. Any changes in the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones would have significant impacts on the intensity and location of these damages.
3. Strategies for Enhancing Resilience in Port Operations
Port operations are at risk from climatic extremes due to the nature of their infrastructure and the heavy dependency on climatic conditions. Investment in climate change research for the coastal zone will provide the information necessary for developing a better understanding of the potential impacts and enable ports to plan effective strategies to both mitigate against and adapt to climate change. This process can be aided through the development of specific climate change scenarios to assess the vulnerability of a particular port or region. An example of such an approach has been undertaken by the National Ports Strategy in Australia with the identification of four climate scenarios as a potential planning and risk management tool for port authorities. This will assist ports in avoiding maladaptation, which may occur if an action to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts instead increases the port’s vulnerability by increasing the likelihood of negative impacts in the future. An example of this would be building a seawall to protect against sea level rise which in turn causes accelerated erosion at adjacent beaches. Utilizing the climate data, the port can signpost its critical vulnerabilities to identify the need for action in the short term, or for critical monitoring areas to ensure preparedness if the marginal changes in the impacts of a hazard event occur. An understanding of the potential impacts of climate change will enable ports to embed climate considerations into all areas of port management to ensure continual adaptation of the port to changing conditions. This detailed knowledge and planning will provide port authorities with increased confidence in decision making in the face of uncertainty and enable the most effective utilization of resources to ensure the continued efficiency of port operations.
3.1 Infrastructure Adaptation and Upgrades
Upgrading or adapting existing infrastructure is crucial for enhancing a port’s resilience. However, for many ports it is also the most difficult step to take, because it necessitates that for existing structures, to replace or modify it, the costs can be prohibitively high. This is because many port structures are expensive to build, and may still have many years of useful life. For example, in the Netherlands port authorities are confronted with the need to upgrade siltation basins, lock gates, and breakwaters to cope with an anticipated increase in mean and storm water levels. Studies into the costs and benefits of taking such measures indicate that, given the life expectancy of the structure and the expected lifespan of climate change, it is economically viable. However, it can still be hard to justify replacing a structure that has not yet fulfilled its primary function. In the case of the lock gates, the decision to begin phasing out the old gates for the new is based on an assessment that, given the increasing frequency of periods during which the old gates would succumb to water damage, the new gates would pay for themselves by being in operation for a longer time. This example illustrates the economic issues faced when dealing with infrastructure adaptation and demonstrates the importance of conducting cost-benefit analysis to determine if a particular adaptation strategy is worthwhile.
Another example of infrastructure adaptation comes from plans by the Port Authority of Jamaica to upgrade the port of Kingston. Changes in climate will increase the severity of natural hazards, and Kingston itself is concurrently facing a high level of societal vulnerability to such hazards. The geography of the area and the distribution of the population mean that flooding events can have severe impact on the people’s livelihoods and land loss due to erosion is already an issue along the south coast of the island. The port is a key feature of the Jamaican economy. Rather than build a new port or moving operations to another island, the port authority has decided that an alteration to the existing passageway is necessary. The funding has been secured through a foreign investment loan. The plan involves widening the existing passageway so that it can accommodate two large ships moving in opposite directions, and this will be achieved by building a new breakwater on an offshore shoal and dredging the area between it and an existing breakwater to form a new passageway. This strategy is intended to productively reduce future losses due to hazard events. An important part of the strategy is that rather than making the port more resilient for the sake of the operations now, it is being done in a way that will service the needs of the future. This is essential because by 2050 it is predicted that the sea levels around Jamaica will have risen to the point where many other shoreline and near shore construction activities will be happening in a high-risk area. A more resilient port will be able to offer support for these activities in the form of emergency aid shipments that are less likely to be disrupted by events occurring at the port.
3.2 Risk Assessment and Management
Organizational responses to the changing risk patterns induced by natural hazards abound. Leichenko and O’Brien (2008) have identified a ‘paradigm shift’ in the risk management policies of organizations, from the traditional ‘predicted outcome approach’ to a ‘revised management approach’ incorporating feedback for continual improvement into the risk assessment process. This mirrors an international trend in moving from the absolutist “predict then act” policy-making model to the more pragmatic notion of “acting, assessing, and acting again” in an iterative process. Whilst the former approach may be suitable for static risks, it is unsuitable for complex, dynamic systems where surprises are inevitable. As the climate is a quintessential complex, dynamic system, future ‘surprises’ (unlikely events with very high impacts) need to be a central focus of risk assessments because these are the events that can incur the highest cost. Realizing the potential inadequacy of past experience as a guide to the future climate, the UK Government recently sponsored research into ‘weather generator’ tools to simulate a range of extreme weather events for risk assessment purposes (Leake and Curneen, 2005). The importance of assessing the effectiveness of risk management practices has also been highlighted. Pecl et al. (2011) used risk assessment matrices to compare the potential impacts and likelihoods of various climate change effects on Australian fisheries, aiding the identification of adaptation strategies designed to minimize the impacts of these changes.
3.3 Emergency Response Planning
It is an unfortunate fact that emergencies do happen. When they do occur, it is important that an adequate plan is in place to prevent extra loss and to ensure recovery is swift and effective. The aim of this section is to discuss disaster management at WhaleCo. There are many types of disaster which could occur at the port. Emergency management should be prepared for a vast range of scenarios both natural and those arising from the port’s operations or freight. Natural disasters may generally instigate the same method of management. It’s vital that the first step is to assess possible risks and their impact, this will influence how funds are allocated to various management strategies of each type of disaster. These plans should first and foremost aim to ensure that no persons are injured during the event. This will likely entail the use of expert safety advice and possibly a temporary cessation or change in operations to place port workers and the community out of harm’s way. High risk prevention is the most cost-effective method of reducing disaster impacts (when the likelihood and severity of a potential event are known), it may involve changes to infrastructure or relocation of at-risk operations. During the disaster event, plans are focused on protection of assets and minimizing loss. Again the prior knowledge of likelihood and severity of event will influence decisions on investment into strategies during the event. An example of this may be the decision to transfer cargo to a warehouse for protection from an expected cyclone. Recovery strategies are those that aim to restore the pre-disaster state as quickly and effectively as possible. This involves having a contingency fund and also prearranged agreements with relevant authorities or companies for necessary assistance in the recovery phase of emergency events. An effective recovery phase will ensure the continuation of port operations and prevent negative flow-on effects to suppliers and customers. Emergency events arising from port operations or freight can be more difficult to manage as they will generally be less predicted and will have an immediacy of impact on those involved. These scenarios will require specific plans for each possible outcome and should involve all relevant parties in their development. A good example of this occurred within container shipping when following the tragedy of September 11 airlines and shipping lines were required to implement security measures to prevent terrorism and the transport of harmful goods in or out of the US. Although this was a long-term preventative measure, it was a direct response to a specific type of emergency event which required a change in the regular method of operation. Emergency management activities of these scenarios will be quite similar to those of natural disaster, despite there only being a prevention and response phase due to the error in comparing disasters from terrorism to loss resulting from a cyclone. No matter what the type of emergency, effective emergency response planning can mean the difference between a minor setback and a catastrophic loss for a company.
3.4 Collaboration and Stakeholder Engagement
In the face of the uncertainty in prediction of the magnitude and location of climate change impacts in the future, it is evident that designing and building new port infrastructure or upgrading existing infrastructure to withstand specific impacts is a costly high-risk gamble. This is likely to be the case for the majority of the life cycle for port infrastructure to come. An alternative to costly infrastructure changes is to increase the flexibility of the existing infrastructure and general port operations. This will allow for more effective adaptation to unforeseen detrimental climate change impacts. To cater for increasing flexibility of operations, ports will need to ensure availability of sufficient resources to provide rapid deployment of alternative operational arrangements and replacement of resources (e.g. mobile/portable cargo handling equipment) and increased storage of cargo to allow for fluctuations in the ship timetable. Steps should also be taken to increase cross-training of staff in different operational areas to increase overall workforce flexibility.
The rapidly changing climate and the subsequent increase in frequency and severity of geophysical and meteorological hazards is creating significant challenges to the efficient and effective operation of ports. Because climate change impacts manifest on a local level, ports are particularly susceptible to these impacts. In weathering the storm, ports will need to develop their understanding of vulnerabilities and risks climate change poses to their operations. They will need to undertake a comprehensive risk assessment and then apply the findings to risk management processes to ensure minimization of impact. Additionally, they will need to better coordinate and plan responses to predicted increases in frequency of extreme weather events. By undertaking these measures, ports will be working to enhance the resilience of their operations as they brace for increasing costs of damages and loss of revenue due to climate change impacts.
3.5 Technological Innovations
Technological innovations may also involve rethinking the design and location of certain port components to better withstand future environmental conditions. Examples might include more resilient building design to withstand extreme wind or flood events and developments in materials technology to produce surfaces and structures with increased durability and decreased maintenance requirements. Information gained from climate impact and risk assessments can be utilized in the development of new infrastructure to ensure it is ‘fit for purpose’ throughout its design life. This concept is exemplified in a US Army Corps of Engineering project in Louisiana developing a handbook for producing more sustainable and resilient infrastructure adapting to dynamic future conditions. Though not specific to the port sector, the principles are transferable and the project includes development of an expert system to assess project designs on their potential resilience and sustainability and weigh this against predicted future conditions, probability of success and cost.
Further resilience can be achieved through the utilization of technological developments aimed at providing better information to assist planning and operational decision-making. This can take many forms such as providing more accurate data at increasingly local scales or developing models that forecast potential impacts and suitable adaptations. At the heart of providing better information is the drive to produce more accurate and reliable tools for decision support. An example is the Port Performance Resilience Tool being developed for the UK’s Department for Transport. This is intended to provide port operators with a better understanding of the likelihood and duration of disruptive events, in turn allowing them to assess the vulnerabilities of different port components and the likely impacts in terms of downtime and repair costs. The project will develop a suite of models and a decision support tool that will enable port operators to decide where best to invest in improved resilience. An Australian project Sustainable Economic and Ecological Development (SEED) has similar aims in developing a decision support tool for the prediction of port and shipping channel capacity and its potential sensitivity and adaptive capacity with a changing climate and future.
4. Case Studies of Resilient Port Operations
The Port of Rotterdam has recognized the risks posed by climate change, and a study was commissioned to identify the ways in which the port could adapt to a changing climate. The study concluded that the effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels, increased frequency of severe weather, and changes in water salinity, would mean that the port would have to invest in adaptation measures. Failure to do so and the subsequent disruptions caused by climate change would have severe economic consequences. The estimated costs of damages caused by climate change to the Port of Rotterdam were between €200 million and €500 million. This has led the port to take a proactive approach towards climate change adaptation and has incorporated climate change as a specific risk factor into its corporate risk management.
The port is Europe’s largest and, as such, the necessity for adaptation of the port’s infrastructure is high. A strategic approach was adopted in which it was recognized that the port would have to tailor its adaptation measures to the specific projected impact of climate change. An assessment was made of the current and future vulnerabilities of the port, and available information on the projected changes in the North Sea climate were used to develop climate change scenarios which would form the basis of the port’s adaptation strategy. An example of one of the identified vulnerabilities was the increased risk of flooding.
4.1 Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands
Regrettably, for some regions within the port, it may not be economically feasible to maintain their function, and it is expected that there will be a shift in port area from the more shallow regions to the deeper regions of Maasvlakte. This is a large-scale sand suppletion project, and the new land is situated behind a hard sea defense. Maasvlakte II development is anticipated to be completed by around 2035, and its solid infrastructure and land elevation provide a good example of long-term adaptation to increased flood risk, though it is a costly solution for the existing port area.
In public and private partnership with the Dutch government, the Rotterdam Climate Proof program has been initiated. This program aims to fully integrate climate adaptive measures into all city development by 2025. An example of the program’s progress: A diverging basin has been completed on the New Waterway, which is designed to remove silt from the river in a more efficient manner. This will reduce maintenance costs for waterway depth and will result in less impact from silt in the event that the New Waterway must be used as a water overflow area, because the lower surrounding left bank means a higher potential for flooding. Measures such as these will serve to allow for minimal disruption to normal operations during a storm event or flooding and will significantly reduce the potential damage costs.
A more direct and physical impact of climate change upon the Port of Rotterdam is increased flooding and storm events. This is a significant issue given that about 60-70% of expected damage costs in the 21st century from climate change in Europe are due to increased flood risks. Currently, the port of Rotterdam is protected by a system of dikes and weirs. However, these are designed under the premise of 20th-century climate conditions, and it is recognized that they will not be able to provide the same level of protection.
The threat of climate change is an issue that has the potential for a massive impact on the operational cost of a port. Rotterdam’s port operations will be challenged by the indirect implications of climate change, such as shifts in global consumption and production patterns, which have an effect upon trade volume and patterns. This can result in changes to the types of cargo handled at Rotterdam, changes to the location of energy supplies, and industries that the port services. Evidently, this highly volatile situation has implications for port infrastructure.
The Port of Rotterdam was established in the 14th century and has, through the ages, played a significant role in international trade. With an area spanning approximately 10,500 hectares and an annual throughput of around 430 million tons of cargo, it has grown to become the largest port in Europe and the 4th in the world in terms of total cargo throughput. The port is situated in a delta region built around the Rhine, Meuse, and Schelde river estuaries. It is conducive to transshipment due to its strategic location for incoming cargo to Europe, with its vast industrial and consumer base. The main types of cargo are oil and oil products, agribulk, containers, and ores. Although the port has experienced growth, it has been met with challenges to which it has dolorously adapted, the present being one of the most challenging.
4.2 Port of Singapore
The Port of Singapore resides on the southern tip of the Malaysian Peninsula and has the privilege of being one of the most successful ports of all time. One of the major components contributing to the success of the Port of Singapore is its geographical location. It is bounded by the sea to the east and the west, which makes it one of the few places in Singapore where the tide is relatively strong. The strong tides in the region help in naturally flushing out the pollutants and reduce the likelihood of siltation occurring. The sea bounds also act as a form of defense from tropical storms and tsunamis. Additionally, approximately a quarter of the land in Singapore is reclaimed land, which is several meters above the highest recorded tide, thereby obviating any risk of flooding. However, the geographical location is also a double-edged sword due to the risk of global climate changes. Measures and studies have been conducted by the UK Met Office and the Centre for Climate Change Studies on the potential impact of climate change in Asia. One of the predictions from the UKMO high resolution climate scenario using PRECIS is that within the SEA region, total annual precipitation is likely to increase. This prediction, paired with the potential rising of sea levels, might pose as future threats to the port.
4.3 Port of Los Angeles, United States
Los Angeles became a part of the PSS because it has identified its vulnerability to climate change impacts, especially sea level rise and flooding. Based on the California Climate Adaptation Strategy, the Port of Los Angeles prepared a vulnerability assessment of its assets to climate change and extreme weather events, including damage cost estimates. The assessment used the sea level rise scenarios proposed in California Climate Action Team report and a 100-year flood event. Using the results of the assessment, the port has started conducting studies to determine its high priority risks and benefits of various mitigation measures. Initial studies have focused on in-depth analysis of a variety of flood protection measures around the port including pilot reconstruction projects. Future studies aim to understand the economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events to aid in creating a cost-benefit analysis guide for future mitigation measures. Being located in California, the port has a good chance to take advantage of the new resources provided by the state’s expansion of similar research, and as more sea level rise documents (public/private) are being released regularly in and around the region, the validity and applicability of PSS tools will increase for this port and potentially others.