What can case fatality data inform us about?

Posted: April 4th, 2019

Team name: Group 2
Team members (list the terms below): Allenah Tolentino, Vi Do, Yasmine Alghaithy, Kassandra Lopez, & Jazmil Marquez Pulido
• Answer each question below. Show all work (e.g., show ratio/formula with numbers plugged-in). Make sure to include the right units for the answers.
• This is a team project, so you will work with your team to complete the problem set, and one member of the team will submit this with your team name included as part of the file name
o Include a “contribution” section at the end that outlines how team member contributed to the problem set
o Total of 5 questions (15 points)

1. A hypothetical state reported the following data:
Number of deaths in the age group 50-55 in 1998 = 1,513
Number of deaths due to cardiovascular disease in 1998 is reported to be = 4,500
Number of deaths in the age group 50-55 due to cardiovascular disease in 1998 is reported to be 345
Estimated 1998 mid-year population in the age group 50-55 = 146,605
Estimated 1998 mid-year population = 1,500,120
Calculate the following rates (each 1 point, total 3 points):
1A) Mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in 1998
• 4,500/1,500,120 x 100,000 =
1B) Mortality rate among 50-55-year-olds in 1998
• 1,513/146,605 x 100,000 =
1C) Mortality rate of cardiovascular disease among 50-55 year olds in 1998
• 345/4,500 x 100,000 =

2. California has a total of 21,794 confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been a total of 651 deaths from COVID-19 in the state. New York has a total of 195,031 confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been 10,056 deaths from COVID-19 in the state.
Answer the following questions (each 1 point, total 4 points):
2A) What is the case fatality of COVID-19 in California?
• (651 / 21,794) x 100 = 2.99 death of Covid-19 in California

2B) What is the case fatality of COVID-19 in New York?
• (10,056 / 195,031) x 100 = 5.15 deaths of Covid-19 in New York

2C) Which state has a higher case fatality from COVID-19?
• In comparison to California, New York had a higher case fatality rate from Covid-19 with 5.15 versus 2.99 fatalities.

2D) What can case fatality data inform us about?
• The number of fatal cases provides a gauge of the disease’s severity. Covid-19 severity in this instance.

3) Assume you have the following fictitious data available for the year 2000:
Causes of death City A – count of death City B – count of death
Cancer 500 800
Heart disease 700 400
Unintentional injuries 400 600
Other 600 200
Total 2,200 2,000

Answer the following questions (each 1 point, total 4 points):
3A) What is the proportionate mortality from Cancer for City A and City B.
3B) On comparing those 2 numbers, which city has a higher proportionate mortality from Cancer?
3C) Does a higher proportionate mortality mean a higher risk of dying from cancer?
3D) What information does proportionate mortality give us?

4) Assume there are 2 countries: City A and City B. Consider the following information and answer the question below:

In 1995,
City A has a crude mortality rate of 800 per 100,000 population
City B has a crude mortality rate of 1,000 per 100,000 population
When we review age-specific mortality, we see that City A has higher age-specific mortality rates across all age groups when compared to City B.
Both cities show an increase in mortality rate with increasing age.
Question: What could explain the higher crude mortality rate for City B? (2 points)

5) Short answer: What is the value of calculating YPLL data? Provide any one YPLL data point you have found (any cause, any population, any time period) and explain how you would interpret that number (2 points)

Answers and contributions:

1A) Mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in 1998 = (4,500/1,500,120) x 100,000 = 300 per 100,000 population
1B) Mortality rate among 50-55-year-olds in 1998 = (1,513/146,605) x 100,000 = 1,031 per 100,000 population
1C) Mortality rate of cardiovascular disease among 50-55 year olds in 1998 = (345/4,500) x 100,000 = 7,667 per 100,000 population

Contributions:

Allenah: worked on the calculations for mortality rates of cardiovascular diseases and among 50-55-year-olds
Vi: worked on the calculation for mortality rate of cardiovascular disease among 50-55 year olds
Yasmine: helped with double-checking calculations and provided input on formatting
Kassandra: worked on formatting and editing the answers
Jazmil: helped with double-checking calculations and formatting
2A) Case fatality of COVID-19 in California = (651/21,794) x 100 = 2.99%
2B) Case fatality of COVID-19 in New York = (10,056/195,031) x 100 = 5.15%
2C) New York has a higher case fatality from COVID-19
2D) Case fatality data can inform us about the severity of a disease and help identify high-risk populations

Contributions:

Allenah: worked on the calculations for case fatality of COVID-19 in California and New York
Vi: helped with double-checking calculations and provided input on formatting
Yasmine: provided information on the significance of case fatality data
Kassandra: helped with formatting and editing the answers
Jazmil: helped with double-checking calculations
3A) Proportionate mortality from Cancer for City A = 500/2200 = 0.227, for City B = 800/2000 = 0.4
3B) City B has a higher proportionate mortality from Cancer
3C) Not necessarily, as proportionate mortality only reflects the proportion of deaths from a specific cause relative to all deaths. It does not indicate the risk of dying from that cause in the population.
3D) Proportionate mortality can give us an idea of the relative importance of different causes of death in a population.

Contributions:

Allenah: worked on the calculations for proportionate mortality from Cancer for City A and City B
Vi: provided information on the significance of proportionate mortality
Yasmine: helped with double-checking calculations and formatting
Kassandra: worked on formatting and editing the answers
Jazmil: provided input on the significance of proportionate mortality
One possible explanation for the higher crude mortality rate in City B despite lower age-specific mortality rates could be differences in the age distribution of the population. City B may have a higher proportion of older individuals who are at a higher risk of mortality, which could contribute to a higher crude mortality rate overall.

Contributions:

Allenah: provided the answer to the question
Vi: provided input on possible explanations for the higher crude mortality rate in City B
Yasmine: provided additional information on the significance of age-specific mortality rates
Kassandra: helped with formatting and editing the answer
Jazmil: helped with editing the answer
YPLL (Years of Potential Life Lost) data can provide information on the number of years of life lost due to